Four issues a week. One complete disaster each, with the receipts.
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points on a unanimous vote, exactly as priced. A trucker lost 13.30% to diesel at a record $6.31, a curve trade lost money because the hike worked, and a short lost to a launch date. None of the three was really a bet on the Fed.
Read the damage →A lender told its shareholders it did not need to become a bank and lost 23.43% anyway, a company borrowed a billion dollars at a 0% coupon and fell 9.81%, and an arcade chain called a 1.6% sales decline an improvement. The 10-year closed above 5% for the first time since 2007.
Read the damage →An AI safety essay took 5.25% off Micron and put 13.85% on CrowdStrike on the same afternoon, and a drone strike on a Saudi pipeline moved Brent more than it moved West Texas. Three people owned the wrong half of each.
Read the damage →A man who locked in 5.28% on the thirty-year lost three months of coupon in one afternoon, a bitcoin holder found out that the ETF which made it institutional is also the pipe the money leaves through, and a man who called the inflation print to the decimal watched the S&P 500 rally 0.86% on it.
Read the damage →The Bancorp fell 22.33% because its own customer bought a bank charter, Tyra fell 17.66% because one patient in fourteen went the wrong way, and a man who held Booking for a three-year appeal lost it in one afternoon in Luxembourg.
Read the damage →Novartis fell 14.14% on its third trial setback in a week, the company that licensed it one of the failed drugs fell with it, and a man short Intel into a $20 billion share sale watched it rise 9%.
Read the damage →A crude short that read the word deal, gold bought as war insurance that fell because the war is inflationary, and a yen carry trade re-entered on the theory that the shock was priced.
Read the damage →Another guidance cut and an eight year low, an event whose news was the absence of news, a breakout that stopped at the exact level everyone was watching, and 162,000 jobs against a consensus of 55,000.
Read the damage →A carry trade that met a hawkish Bank of Japan, a company that beat every estimate and fell 13.54%, a $3.65 billion backlog attached to $33 million of revenue, and a stock that beat by $60 million and missed by $50 million.
Read the damage →A gold hedge doubled at the worst possible moment, a third of an account on one lupus readout, 215 times earnings meeting a rising yield, and a short in a dying company that got bought for cash.
Read the damage →A utility repriced by a legislature that went home, a crude short caught by a weekend strike, an airline that pays for the same barrel, and a moat dissolved by one Saturday post.
Read the damage →A short that was right about the arithmetic and wrong about the month, a currency trade that met a brand new Fed chair, and a takeover that stopped being one.
Read the damage →Five minutes of reading. A lifetime of bad decisions to study. Your portfolio will thank you, eventually.
